Bitcoin Volatility Spikes as Traders Bet on $145K October Target

After this week’s choppy price action rattled digital assets, derivatives data reveal traders haven’t lost faith in the next leg higher. On-chain options metrics show implied volatility climbing to multi-month highs as market participants load up on bullish wagers with October expiries.

High-Stakes Call Spreads Fuel Volatility

Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility recently surged above 80%, its loftiest level since early 2023. That spike has traders favoring call spreads targeting six-figure strikes. In particular, open interest in $145,000 Bitcoin calls for the end of October has jumped over 35% in the past week, highlighting a growing bet on a major rally before month’s end.

These aggressive positions may seem ambitious—$145,000 represents more than a 130% gain from current levels—but bulls argue that looming macro catalysts and potential regulatory green lights could trigger the kind of parabolic move traders are pricing in.

Ethereum Bulls Keep Eyes on $5,000

Ethereum traders aren’t sitting idly by. Data from on-chain derivatives platforms indicate market participants assign roughly a 22% probability that Ether will eclipse $5,000 by October 31. Open interest in $5,000-strike ETH calls has climbed steadily, as bulls anticipate renewed momentum from upcoming network upgrades and surging decentralized finance activity.

Implications for the Broader Market

These pronounced bets come amid broader altcoin weakness that saw many high-cap tokens slide double digits this week. Nevertheless, the heft behind these option positions suggests institutional desks and sophisticated traders view current dips as buying opportunities rather than the start of a sustained downtrend.

Critics warn that lofty targets carry significant risk if macro headwinds intensify or if regulatory delays disappoint. Still, the sheer volume of inflows into both Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives underscores an unwavering bullish consensus—at least for the time being.

Conclusion

As implied volatility stays elevated and traders pile into out-of-the-money calls, the market braces for a critical period. Catalysts ranging from macroeconomic data to regulatory developments will determine if these ambitious wagers come to fruition. For now, both Bitcoin and Ethereum bulls remain firmly in the saddle, confident that the next few weeks could set the stage for spectacular year-end gains.